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Category Archives: Probability and Bayesian analysis
The Election in Indi: #indivotes
This post on the election outcome in Indi is a little beyond my usual area of expertise, but it is a nice example of simple modelling. I’m going to tackle the question of whether Sophie Mirabella or Cathy McGowan will … Continue reading
INTECOL talk, #INT13
I’m talking in the S11 Maths, Models & Methods session at INTECOL on Tuesday at 11:15 in room 4. The topic is “Developing biodiversity indices using models”. A copy of the slides is available here. I’ll also auto-tweet a little … Continue reading
Considering uncertainty in environmental management decisions
This is a post about a new paper, which forms part of the PhD thesis of Yacov Salomon. Yacov is jointly enrolled in the School of Botany and the Department of Mathematics and Statistics at The University of Melbourne. Salomon, … Continue reading
Posted in Ecological models, New research, Probability and Bayesian analysis
Tagged Brendan Wintle, ecology, environmental decisions, koala, matrix population models, Michael McCarthy, mick mccarthy, models, olive ridley sea turtle, optimal management, peter baxter, Peter Taylor, portfolio theory, probability, research, uncertainty, Yacov Salomon
2 Comments
Effects of timber harvesting on water yield from mountain ash forests
The effect of timber harvesting on water yield from mountain ash forest has been studied for decades. It is topical because mountain ash forests supply a large amount of water to Melbourne, a city of more than 4 million people. … Continue reading
Posted in Communication, Probability and Bayesian analysis
Tagged fire, forest, mick mccarthy, models, mountain ash forests, probability, risk, timber harvesting, water
8 Comments
Planning for unplanned fires, and the response of biodiversity
There is a report in today’s Age about the decline of Leadbeater’s possum in the face of fires and timber harvesting. Professor David Lindenmayer of the Australian National University notes that the situation is dire, and that timber harvesting should … Continue reading
Posted in Communication, Probability and Bayesian analysis
Tagged david lindenmayer, fire, forest, leadbeaters possum, uncertainty
3 Comments
Optimal monitoring when detectability varies – my talk at #ESAus2012
Edit: A paper based on this work has now been published in PLoS One (open access, i.e. free). doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0115345. I’m looking forward to the Ecological Society of Australia conference this week. I’m speaking in the second time slot (2:15 … Continue reading
Posted in CEED, Communication, Detectability, Ecological models, New research, Probability and Bayesian analysis
Tagged #ESAus2012, detectability, detection rate, ecological surveys, ecology, environmental decisions, models, monitoring, research, science, science communication, uncertainty
4 Comments
Detectability and traits of plants
If you’ve seen previous posts, you would realise that I am interested in the topic of imperfect detectability in field surveys. I’m interested in what influences detectability, how to account for it in analyses, and what it means when designing … Continue reading
Nate Silver would be more of a guru if Romney wins Florida
Nate Silver is a prediction guru (or perhaps a witch). He compiles data from polling results, that he weights by sample size and measures of historical reliability, to predict the winner of the US presidential election. He calculates the probability … Continue reading
Posted in Probability and Bayesian analysis
Tagged Bayesian, models, Nate Silver, prediction, probability, US presidential election
4 Comments
Use confidence intervals to avoid the dance of the p-values
Geoff Cumming has written a great article in The Conversation about problems with using p-values for determining importance when using statistics. He recommends focusing on measuring effect sizes by using confidence intervals. It is well worth reading, but you should … Continue reading
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