Category Archives: Probability and Bayesian analysis

Joint Species Distribution Models

Update: The paper is now available (free) from Methods in Ecology and Evolution. Update 2: In the tutorial on how to use this method, we refer to the file “fit.JSDM.r”. This is the R script on the journal website named, … Continue reading

Posted in CEED, Ecological models, New research, Probability and Bayesian analysis | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , | 9 Comments

The Election in Indi: #indivotes

This post on the election outcome in Indi is a little beyond my usual area of expertise, but it is a nice example of simple modelling. I’m going to tackle the question of whether Sophie Mirabella or Cathy McGowan will … Continue reading

Posted in Probability and Bayesian analysis | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , | 9 Comments

INTECOL talk, #INT13

I’m talking in the S11 Maths, Models & Methods session at INTECOL on Tuesday at 11:15 in room 4. The topic is “Developing biodiversity indices using models”. A copy of the slides is available here. I’ll also auto-tweet a little … Continue reading

Posted in CEED, Communication, Ecological indices, Probability and Bayesian analysis | Tagged , , , , , , , , , | 1 Comment

Statistical inference in ecology

Update: a pdf of an updated version of this chapter is available here. If this post had a single take-home message, it would be this: whatever statistical method you use, make sure that you use and report it appropriately. I’m … Continue reading

Posted in New research, Probability and Bayesian analysis | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 22 Comments

Considering uncertainty in environmental management decisions

This is a post about a new paper, which forms part of the PhD thesis of Yacov Salomon. Yacov is jointly enrolled in the School of Botany and the Department of Mathematics and Statistics at The University of Melbourne. Salomon, … Continue reading

Posted in Ecological models, New research, Probability and Bayesian analysis | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 2 Comments

Effects of timber harvesting on water yield from mountain ash forests

The effect of timber harvesting on water yield from mountain ash forest has been studied for decades. It is topical because mountain ash forests supply a large amount of water to Melbourne, a city of more than 4 million people. … Continue reading

Posted in Communication, Probability and Bayesian analysis | Tagged , , , , , , , , | 8 Comments

Planning for unplanned fires, and the response of biodiversity

There is a report in today’s Age about the decline of Leadbeater’s possum in the face of fires and timber harvesting. Professor David Lindenmayer of the Australian National University notes that the situation is dire, and that timber harvesting should … Continue reading

Posted in Communication, Probability and Bayesian analysis | Tagged , , , , | 3 Comments