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Category Archives: Ecological models
Models – what are they good for?
Models are everywhere at the moment! Everyone in Australia will have heard of the Doherty model, which has helped set Australia’s path out of the pandemic. Modelling from the Burnett Institute is helping to steer both New South Wales and … Continue reading
Posted in Communication, COVID, Ecological models
Tagged covid-19, epidemiology, Michael McCarthy, models
1 Comment
Progress on COVID-19
Update 7 April: New data on recoveries for Australia – we now have more recoveries than new cases. Spain’s rate of new infections is almost below the rate of recoveries. Update 4 April (latest graphs): Note: There was an error … Continue reading
When does research help environmental management?
Think of the case where a manager needs to decide which action to take to stop a species declining, or to eradicate a pest, or to increase sustainable harvest levels. It is rare in environmental management to know, with certainty, … Continue reading
Simple Adaptive Management
This post gives some details of my speed talk at the SCB Oceania conference, which is in room P9 on Thursday 7 July at 11:50 as part of a session on conservation planning and adaptive management. We have submitted this … Continue reading
Posted in CEED, Communication, Ecological models, Probability and Bayesian analysis
Tagged #SCBO2016, adaptive management, Alana Moore, conference, ecology, environmental decisions, Michael McCarthy, mick mccarthy, probability, research, science, Society for Conservation Biology, The University of Melbourne, uncertainty
1 Comment
CSI: Ecology. Efficiency of eDNA sampling
Detecting a species from the DNA it left behind seems so much like CSI: Ecology. DNA deposited in the environment (eDNA for the cool kids), which can then be collected and identified, is increasingly advocated for ecological studies (Ficetola et … Continue reading
While I was sleeping: optimising ecological surveys over space and time
With the recent online publication of a new paper, here’s a blog post about how the research arose – a fun confluence of mathematical and cognitive collaboration across two sides of the world. And some of it was achieved while … Continue reading
Posted in CEED, Detectability, Ecological models, New research, Probability and Bayesian analysis
Tagged Alana Moore, Cindy Hauser, ecological surveys, ecology, environmental decisions, imperfect detection, Michael McCarthy, mick mccarthy, models, optimization, probability, research, uncertainty
1 Comment
My talk at #ISEC2014
I’m speaking tomorrow on the last afternoon of the International Statistical Ecology Conference in Montpellier. I’ll be arguing that usual metrics (e.g., AIC) to measure the performance of species distribution models (SDMs) might not actually be relevant for selecting models … Continue reading
Triage does not mean abandoning the most threatened species
Species triage has been in the news lately. The reports might create the impression that we should give up trying to save the most threatened species. Let me be clear: The science underpinning species triage does not say saving the … Continue reading
Posted in CEED, Communication, Ecological models
Tagged bird species, conservation, ecology, endangered species, environmental decisions, extinct species, extinction, Hugh Possingham, Liana Joseph, Michael McCarthy, models, prioritization, probability, species triage, The University of Melbourne, threatened species
21 Comments
Joint Species Distribution Models
Update: The paper is now available (free) from Methods in Ecology and Evolution. Update 2: In the tutorial on how to use this method, we refer to the file “fit.JSDM.r”. This is the R script on the journal website named, … Continue reading
Posted in CEED, Ecological models, New research, Probability and Bayesian analysis
Tagged Bayesian, Chib and Greenberg, correlation, ecology, Michael McCarthy, mick mccarthy, multivariate, mutlivariate probit, probability, research, species distribution model, species distribution models, The University of Melbourne
11 Comments
Considering uncertainty in environmental management decisions
This is a post about a new paper, which forms part of the PhD thesis of Yacov Salomon. Yacov is jointly enrolled in the School of Botany and the Department of Mathematics and Statistics at The University of Melbourne. Salomon, … Continue reading
Posted in Ecological models, New research, Probability and Bayesian analysis
Tagged Brendan Wintle, ecology, environmental decisions, koala, matrix population models, Michael McCarthy, mick mccarthy, models, olive ridley sea turtle, optimal management, peter baxter, Peter Taylor, portfolio theory, probability, research, uncertainty, Yacov Salomon
2 Comments
Michael McCarthy's Research 
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