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Category Archives: Communication
How I’ll watch the 2022 Australian Federal election
With a few days to go until ballots begin to be counted in the 2022 Australian federal election, I thought I’d give an overview of some of the things I’ll be tracking on Saturday once counting starts. In addition to … Continue reading
Posted in Communication, Uncategorized
Tagged Australian Federal Election, election, Josh Frydenberg, models, Monique Ryan
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Models – what are they good for?
Models are everywhere at the moment! Everyone in Australia will have heard of the Doherty model, which has helped set Australia’s path out of the pandemic. Modelling from the Burnett Institute is helping to steer both New South Wales and … Continue reading
Posted in Communication, COVID, Ecological models
Tagged covid-19, epidemiology, Michael McCarthy, models
1 Comment
COVID hotel quarantine failures – a hierarchical model
With another lockdown in Victoria, the media has been asking why Victoria has had a worse COVID experience than other Australian states. Much can be explained by the challenges of the second wave and an overwhelmed contact tracing system. Contact … Continue reading
Posted in Communication, COVID, Probability and Bayesian analysis
Tagged Bayesian statistics, BUGS, covid-19, hierarchical model
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Where is COVID-19 heading in Australia?
Update: 18 April 2020, p.m. The relatively slow decline in active Australian cases (see original post below) reflects some regional variation in the progression of the epidemic. For example, the number of active cases has increased in Tasmania. In Victoria, … Continue reading
Local transmission rates
Last update (9 April): In my previous post, I examined country-level trends in transmission rates of the coronavirus. Most of Australia’s cases have been imported from international arrivals (typically returning travellers). Notwithstanding some notable bloopers, controlling importation of coronavirus is … Continue reading
Posted in Communication, COVID
1 Comment
Progress on COVID-19
Update 7 April: New data on recoveries for Australia – we now have more recoveries than new cases. Spain’s rate of new infections is almost below the rate of recoveries. Update 4 April (latest graphs): Note: There was an error … Continue reading
Wentworth 2018 – Phelps dominates the preference flows
Update (23 Oct): I’ve included a graph of the estimated preference flows (after a slight tweak to the analysis). With the Australian Electoral Commission (AEC) counting of Wentworth 2018 nearing its end, we can look at the preference flows to … Continue reading
Posted in Communication
Tagged David Sharma, election, Kerryn Phelps, preference flows, votes, Wentworth
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Batman By-Election 2018
It’s on in Batman. And the result might well depend on what happens north of the Hipster-proof Fence, a term coined (by my wife) to help describe the voting patterns that flipped in the vicinity of Bell St. With David … Continue reading
Posted in Communication, Uncategorized
Tagged #batmanvotes, #northcotevotes, ALP, batman, Bhathal, election, Feeney, Greens, hipster-proof fence, northcote
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Swinging on the Hipster-proof Fence
The “Hipster-proof Fence” is an evocative name for Bell St, which tended to divide booths in Batman that were won by the ALP in the 2016 federal election from those won by the Greens. A similar pattern was seen in … Continue reading
Posted in Communication
Tagged #ausvotes, batman, Bhathal, Feeney, hipster-proof fence, Khalil, Ratnam, tofu curtain, Will
2 Comments
Simple Adaptive Management
This post gives some details of my speed talk at the SCB Oceania conference, which is in room P9 on Thursday 7 July at 11:50 as part of a session on conservation planning and adaptive management. We have submitted this … Continue reading
Posted in CEED, Communication, Ecological models, Probability and Bayesian analysis
Tagged #SCBO2016, adaptive management, Alana Moore, conference, ecology, environmental decisions, Michael McCarthy, mick mccarthy, probability, research, science, Society for Conservation Biology, The University of Melbourne, uncertainty
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