Category Archives: Communication

Wentworth 2018 – Phelps dominates the preference flows

Posted on October 22, 2018 by

Update (23 Oct): I’ve included a graph of the estimated preference flows (after a slight tweak to the analysis). With the Australian Electoral Commission (AEC) counting of Wentworth 2018 nearing its end, we can look at the preference flows to … Continue reading →

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Batman By-Election 2018

Posted on February 2, 2018 by

It’s on in Batman. And the result might well depend on what happens north of the Hipster-proof Fence, a term coined (by my wife) to help describe the voting patterns that flipped in the vicinity of Bell St. With David … Continue reading →

Posted in Communication, Uncategorized | Tagged , , , , , , , , , | 1 Comment

Swinging on the Hipster-proof Fence

Posted on July 8, 2016 by

The “Hipster-proof Fence” is an evocative name for Bell St, which tended to divide booths in Batman that were won by the ALP in the 2016 federal election from those won by the Greens. A similar pattern was seen in … Continue reading →

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Simple Adaptive Management

Posted on July 5, 2016 by

This post gives some details of my speed talk at the SCB Oceania conference, which is in room P9 on Thursday 7 July at 11:50 as part of a session on conservation planning and adaptive management. We have submitted this … Continue reading →

Posted in CEED, Communication, Ecological models, Probability and Bayesian analysis | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 1 Comment

Preference flows in #IndiVotes 2106

Posted on July 4, 2016 by

Update (6 July 2016, 8:00 a.m.) Kevin Bonham pointed me to this AEC table that indicates the flow of preferences for Nationals voters in three-cornered contests in 2013. It was 75.45% to the Liberals and 24.55% to the ALP. So … Continue reading →

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#Batman on a knife edge

Posted on July 2, 2016 by

Update (9 July, 1:30 p.m.) The postals votes have drifted a little back toward Bhathal, but Feeney still has 56.62% of them. Some absent votes have now been counted, which are currently favouring Bhathal (55.97%), but she is trailing by … Continue reading →

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Election fever hits again

Posted on June 30, 2016 by

In the 2013 election, I took some interest in the election result in Indi, a seat located in the north-east of Victoria. My interest was spurred by the chance that Sophie Mirabella, who was flagged to be the next Science … Continue reading →

Posted in Communication, Probability and Bayesian analysis | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 1 Comment