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Category Archives: Communication
Wentworth 2018 – Phelps dominates the preference flows
Update (23 Oct): I’ve included a graph of the estimated preference flows (after a slight tweak to the analysis). With the Australian Electoral Commission (AEC) counting of Wentworth 2018 nearing its end, we can look at the preference flows to … Continue reading
Posted in Communication
Tagged David Sharma, election, Kerryn Phelps, preference flows, votes, Wentworth
Batman By-Election 2018
It’s on in Batman. And the result might well depend on what happens north of the Hipster-proof Fence, a term coined (by my wife) to help describe the voting patterns that flipped in the vicinity of Bell St. With David … Continue reading
Posted in Communication, Uncategorized
Tagged #batmanvotes, #northcotevotes, ALP, batman, Bhathal, election, Feeney, Greens, hipster-proof fence, northcote
1 Comment
Swinging on the Hipster-proof Fence
The “Hipster-proof Fence” is an evocative name for Bell St, which tended to divide booths in Batman that were won by the ALP in the 2016 federal election from those won by the Greens. A similar pattern was seen in … Continue reading
Posted in Communication
Tagged #ausvotes, batman, Bhathal, Feeney, hipster-proof fence, Khalil, Ratnam, tofu curtain, Will
2 Comments
Simple Adaptive Management
This post gives some details of my speed talk at the SCB Oceania conference, which is in room P9 on Thursday 7 July at 11:50 as part of a session on conservation planning and adaptive management. We have submitted this … Continue reading
Posted in CEED, Communication, Ecological models, Probability and Bayesian analysis
Tagged #SCBO2016, adaptive management, Alana Moore, conference, ecology, environmental decisions, Michael McCarthy, mick mccarthy, probability, research, science, Society for Conservation Biology, The University of Melbourne, uncertainty
1 Comment
Preference flows in #IndiVotes 2106
Update (6 July 2016, 8:00 a.m.) Kevin Bonham pointed me to this AEC table that indicates the flow of preferences for Nationals voters in three-cornered contests in 2013. It was 75.45% to the Liberals and 24.55% to the ALP. So … Continue reading
Posted in Communication
Tagged #indivotes, Cathy McGowan, Indi, preference flows, Sophie Mirabella
1 Comment
#Batman on a knife edge
Update (9 July, 1:30 p.m.) The postals votes have drifted a little back toward Bhathal, but Feeney still has 56.62% of them. Some absent votes have now been counted, which are currently favouring Bhathal (55.97%), but she is trailing by … Continue reading
Election fever hits again
In the 2013 election, I took some interest in the election result in Indi, a seat located in the north-east of Victoria. My interest was spurred by the chance that Sophie Mirabella, who was flagged to be the next Science … Continue reading
