Category Archives: Communication

How I’ll watch the 2022 Australian Federal election

Posted on May 18, 2022 by Michael McCarthy

With a few days to go until ballots begin to be counted in the 2022 Australian federal election, I thought I’d give an overview of some of the things I’ll be tracking on Saturday once counting starts. In addition to … Continue reading →

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Models – what are they good for?

Posted on September 24, 2021 by Michael McCarthy

Models are everywhere at the moment! Everyone in Australia will have heard of the Doherty model, which has helped set Australia’s path out of the pandemic. Modelling from the Burnett Institute is helping to steer both New South Wales and … Continue reading →

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COVID hotel quarantine failures – a hierarchical model

Posted on June 5, 2021 by Michael McCarthy

With another lockdown in Victoria, the media has been asking why Victoria has had a worse COVID experience than other Australian states. Much can be explained by the challenges of the second wave and an overwhelmed contact tracing system. Contact … Continue reading →

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Where is COVID-19 heading in Australia?

Posted on April 17, 2020 by Michael McCarthy

Update: 18 April 2020, p.m. The relatively slow decline in active Australian cases (see original post below) reflects some regional variation in the progression of the epidemic. For example, the number of active cases has increased in Tasmania. In Victoria, … Continue reading →

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Local transmission rates

Posted on April 4, 2020 by Michael McCarthy

Last update (9 April): In my previous post, I examined country-level trends in transmission rates of the coronavirus. Most of Australia’s cases have been imported from international arrivals (typically returning travellers). Notwithstanding some notable bloopers, controlling importation of coronavirus is … Continue reading →

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Progress on COVID-19

Posted on March 29, 2020 by Michael McCarthy

Update 7 April: New data on recoveries for Australia – we now have more recoveries than new cases. Spain’s rate of new infections is almost below the rate of recoveries. Update 4 April (latest graphs): Note: There was an error … Continue reading →

Posted in Communication, COVID, Ecological models, Probability and Bayesian analysis | 2 Comments

Wentworth 2018 – Phelps dominates the preference flows

Posted on October 22, 2018 by Michael McCarthy

Update (23 Oct): I’ve included a graph of the estimated preference flows (after a slight tweak to the analysis). With the Australian Electoral Commission (AEC) counting of Wentworth 2018 nearing its end, we can look at the preference flows to … Continue reading →

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Batman By-Election 2018

Posted on February 2, 2018 by Michael McCarthy

It’s on in Batman. And the result might well depend on what happens north of the Hipster-proof Fence, a term coined (by my wife) to help describe the voting patterns that flipped in the vicinity of Bell St. With David … Continue reading →

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Swinging on the Hipster-proof Fence

Posted on July 8, 2016 by Michael McCarthy

The “Hipster-proof Fence” is an evocative name for Bell St, which tended to divide booths in Batman that were won by the ALP in the 2016 federal election from those won by the Greens. A similar pattern was seen in … Continue reading →

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Simple Adaptive Management

Posted on July 5, 2016 by Michael McCarthy

This post gives some details of my speed talk at the SCB Oceania conference, which is in room P9 on Thursday 7 July at 11:50 as part of a session on conservation planning and adaptive management. We have submitted this … Continue reading →

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