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Update: The paper is now available (free) from Methods in Ecology and Evolution. Update 2: In the tutorial on how to use this method, we refer to the file “fit.JSDM.r”. This is the R script on the journal website named, … Continue reading
Nate Silver is a prediction guru (or perhaps a witch). He compiles data from polling results, that he weights by sample size and measures of historical reliability, to predict the winner of the US presidential election. He calculates the probability … Continue reading