Category Archives: Probability and Bayesian analysis

COVID hotel quarantine failures – a hierarchical model

With another lockdown in Victoria, the media has been asking why Victoria has had a worse COVID experience than other Australian states. Much can be explained by the challenges of the second wave and an overwhelmed contact tracing system. Contact … Continue reading

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Progress on COVID-19

Update 7 April: New data on recoveries for Australia – we now have more recoveries than new cases. Spain’s rate of new infections is almost below the rate of recoveries. Update 4 April (latest graphs): Note: There was an error … Continue reading

Posted in Communication, COVID, Ecological models, Probability and Bayesian analysis | 2 Comments

Simple Adaptive Management

This post gives some details of my speed talk at the SCB Oceania conference, which is in room P9 on Thursday 7 July at 11:50 as part of a session on conservation planning and adaptive management. We have submitted this … Continue reading

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Election fever hits again

In the 2013 election, I took some interest in the election result in Indi, a seat located in the north-east of Victoria. My interest was spurred by the chance that Sophie Mirabella, who was flagged to be the next Science … Continue reading

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CSI: Ecology. Efficiency of eDNA sampling

Detecting a species from the DNA it left behind seems so much like CSI: Ecology. DNA deposited in the environment (eDNA for the cool kids), which can then be collected and identified, is increasingly advocated for ecological studies (Ficetola et … Continue reading

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An election looms, and the temperature continues to rise…

In one of my subjects, I used data on the relationship between the global temperature and CO2 concentrations to teach how variability can mask relationships, making inference uncertain. The example was based on an Australian political debate in 2009 about whether … Continue reading

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While I was sleeping: optimising ecological surveys over space and time

With the recent online publication of a new paper, here’s a blog post about how the research arose – a fun confluence of mathematical and cognitive collaboration across two sides of the world. And some of it was achieved while … Continue reading

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Effects of stand age on fire severity

Our new paper shows that the probability of crown fire in mountain forests under extreme weather conditions is greatest when trees are about 15 years old. This has implications for debates about how timber harvesting influences the risk of fire. … Continue reading

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My talk at #ISEC2014

I’m speaking tomorrow on the last afternoon of the International Statistical Ecology Conference in Montpellier. I’ll be arguing that usual metrics (e.g., AIC) to measure the performance of species distribution models (SDMs) might not actually be relevant for selecting models … Continue reading

Posted in CEED, Communication, Detectability, Ecological indices, Ecological models, New research, Probability and Bayesian analysis | 1 Comment

Joint Species Distribution Models

Update: The paper is now available (free) from Methods in Ecology and Evolution. Update 2: In the tutorial on how to use this method, we refer to the file “fit.JSDM.r”. This is the R script on the journal website named, … Continue reading

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