Author Archives: Michael McCarthy

About Michael McCarthy

I conduct research on environmental decision making and quantitative ecology. My teaching is mainly at post-grad level at The University of Melbourne.

Progress on COVID-19

Update 2 April (latest graphs): USA remains a major worry. There are good signs in Australia but more improvement is needed. Spain is better than it was, but still a worry. Original post: You must be tired of exponential trajectories … Continue reading

Posted in Communication, Ecological models, Probability and Bayesian analysis

Wentworth 2018 – Phelps dominates the preference flows

Update (23 Oct): I’ve included a graph of the estimated preference flows (after a slight tweak to the analysis). With the Australian Electoral Commission (AEC) counting of Wentworth 2018 nearing its end, we can look at the preference flows to … Continue reading

Posted in Communication | Tagged , , , , ,

Batman By-Election 2018

It’s on in Batman. And the result might well depend on what happens north of the Hipster-proof Fence, a term coined (by my wife) to help describe the voting patterns that flipped in the vicinity of Bell St. With David … Continue reading

Posted in Communication, Uncategorized | Tagged , , , , , , , , , | 1 Comment

When does research help environmental management?

Think of the case where a manager needs to decide which action to take to stop a species  declining, or to eradicate a pest, or to increase sustainable harvest levels. It is rare in environmental management to know, with certainty, … Continue reading

Posted in Ecological models, Uncategorized | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , | 1 Comment

Swinging on the Hipster-proof Fence

The “Hipster-proof Fence” is an evocative name for Bell St, which tended to divide booths in Batman that were won by the ALP in the 2016 federal election from those won by the Greens. A similar pattern was seen in … Continue reading

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Simple Adaptive Management

This post gives some details of my speed talk at the SCB Oceania conference, which is in room P9 on Thursday 7 July at 11:50 as part of a session on conservation planning and adaptive management. We have submitted this … Continue reading

Posted in CEED, Communication, Ecological models, Probability and Bayesian analysis | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 1 Comment

Preference flows in #IndiVotes 2106

Update (6 July 2016, 8:00 a.m.) Kevin Bonham pointed me to this AEC table that indicates the flow of preferences for Nationals voters in three-cornered contests in 2013. It was 75.45% to the Liberals and 24.55% to the ALP. So … Continue reading

Posted in Communication | Tagged , , , , | 1 Comment