Tag Archives: prediction

The Election in Indi: #indivotes

This post on the election outcome in Indi is a little beyond my usual area of expertise, but it is a nice example of simple modelling. I’m going to tackle the question of whether Sophie Mirabella or Cathy McGowan will … Continue reading

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Nate Silver would be more of a guru if Romney wins Florida

Nate Silver is a prediction guru (or perhaps a witch). He compiles data from polling results, that he weights by sample size and measures of historical reliability, to predict the winner of the US presidential election. He calculates the probability … Continue reading

Posted in Probability and Bayesian analysis | Tagged , , , , , | 4 Comments