Tag Archives: prediction

The Election in Indi: #indivotes

Posted on September 12, 2013 by Michael McCarthy

This post on the election outcome in Indi is a little beyond my usual area of expertise, but it is a nice example of simple modelling. I’m going to tackle the question of whether Sophie Mirabella or Cathy McGowan will … Continue reading →

Posted in Probability and Bayesian analysis | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , | 10 Comments

Nate Silver would be more of a guru if Romney wins Florida

Posted on November 7, 2012 by Michael McCarthy

Nate Silver is a prediction guru (or perhaps a witch). He compiles data from polling results, that he weights by sample size and measures of historical reliability, to predict the winner of the US presidential election. He calculates the probability … Continue reading →

Posted in Probability and Bayesian analysis | Tagged , , , , , | 4 Comments