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Category Archives: COVID
Models – what are they good for?
Models are everywhere at the moment! Everyone in Australia will have heard of the Doherty model, which has helped set Australia’s path out of the pandemic. Modelling from the Burnett Institute is helping to steer both New South Wales and … Continue reading
Posted in Communication, COVID, Ecological models Tagged covid-19, epidemiology, Michael McCarthy, models 1 Comment
COVID hotel quarantine failures – a hierarchical model
With another lockdown in Victoria, the media has been asking why Victoria has had a worse COVID experience than other Australian states. Much can be explained by the challenges of the second wave and an overwhelmed contact tracing system. Contact … Continue reading
Posted in Communication, COVID, Probability and Bayesian analysis Tagged Bayesian statistics, BUGS, covid-19, hierarchical model Leave a comment
Where is COVID-19 heading in Australia?
Update: 18 April 2020, p.m. The relatively slow decline in active Australian cases (see original post below) reflects some regional variation in the progression of the epidemic. For example, the number of active cases has increased in Tasmania. In Victoria, … Continue reading
Posted in Communication, COVID Tagged coronavirus, covid-19 Leave a comment
Local transmission rates
Last update (9 April): In my previous post, I examined country-level trends in transmission rates of the coronavirus. Most of Australia’s cases have been imported from international arrivals (typically returning travellers). Notwithstanding some notable bloopers, controlling importation of coronavirus is … Continue reading
Posted in Communication, COVID 1 Comment
Progress on COVID-19
Update 7 April: New data on recoveries for Australia – we now have more recoveries than new cases. Spain’s rate of new infections is almost below the rate of recoveries. Update 4 April (latest graphs): Note: There was an error … Continue reading
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