Category Archives: COVID

Models – what are they good for?

Posted on September 24, 2021 by Michael McCarthy

Models are everywhere at the moment! Everyone in Australia will have heard of the Doherty model, which has helped set Australia’s path out of the pandemic. Modelling from the Burnett Institute is helping to steer both New South Wales and … Continue reading →

Posted in Communication, COVID, Ecological models | Tagged , , , | 1 Comment

COVID hotel quarantine failures – a hierarchical model

Posted on June 5, 2021 by Michael McCarthy

With another lockdown in Victoria, the media has been asking why Victoria has had a worse COVID experience than other Australian states. Much can be explained by the challenges of the second wave and an overwhelmed contact tracing system. Contact … Continue reading →

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Where is COVID-19 heading in Australia?

Posted on April 17, 2020 by Michael McCarthy

Update: 18 April 2020, p.m. The relatively slow decline in active Australian cases (see original post below) reflects some regional variation in the progression of the epidemic. For example, the number of active cases has increased in Tasmania. In Victoria, … Continue reading →

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Local transmission rates

Posted on April 4, 2020 by Michael McCarthy

Last update (9 April): In my previous post, I examined country-level trends in transmission rates of the coronavirus. Most of Australia’s cases have been imported from international arrivals (typically returning travellers). Notwithstanding some notable bloopers, controlling importation of coronavirus is … Continue reading →

Posted in Communication, COVID | 1 Comment

Progress on COVID-19

Posted on March 29, 2020 by Michael McCarthy

Update 7 April: New data on recoveries for Australia – we now have more recoveries than new cases. Spain’s rate of new infections is almost below the rate of recoveries. Update 4 April (latest graphs): Note: There was an error … Continue reading →

Posted in Communication, COVID, Ecological models, Probability and Bayesian analysis | 2 Comments