Tag Archives: election

Wentworth 2018 – Phelps dominates the preference flows

Update (23 Oct): I’ve included a graph of the estimated preference flows (after a slight tweak to the analysis). With the Australian Electoral Commission (AEC) counting of Wentworth 2018 nearing its end, we can look at the preference flows to … Continue reading

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Batman By-Election 2018

It’s on in Batman. And the result might well depend on what happens north of the Hipster-proof Fence, a term coined (by my wife) to help describe the voting patterns that flipped in the vicinity of Bell St. With David … Continue reading

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#Batman on a knife edge

Update (9 July, 1:30 p.m.) The postals votes have drifted a little back toward Bhathal, but Feeney still has 56.62% of them. Some absent votes have now been counted, which are currently favouring Bhathal (55.97%), but she is trailing by … Continue reading

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Election fever hits again

In the 2013 election, I took some interest in the election result in Indi, a seat located in the north-east of Victoria. My interest was spurred by the chance that Sophie Mirabella, who was flagged to be the next Science … Continue reading

Posted in Communication, Probability and Bayesian analysis | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 1 Comment