-
Recent Posts
Categories
Archives
Twitter Updates
Tweets by mickresearchLinks
Blogroll
Scientific Societies
Journals
Category Archives: Probability and Bayesian analysis
COVID hotel quarantine failures – a hierarchical model
With another lockdown in Victoria, the media has been asking why Victoria has had a worse COVID experience than other Australian states. Much can be explained by the challenges of the second wave and an overwhelmed contact tracing system. Contact … Continue reading
Posted in Communication, COVID, Probability and Bayesian analysis
Tagged Bayesian statistics, BUGS, covid-19, hierarchical model
Leave a comment
Progress on COVID-19
Update 7 April: New data on recoveries for Australia – we now have more recoveries than new cases. Spain’s rate of new infections is almost below the rate of recoveries. Update 4 April (latest graphs): Note: There was an error … Continue reading
Simple Adaptive Management
This post gives some details of my speed talk at the SCB Oceania conference, which is in room P9 on Thursday 7 July at 11:50 as part of a session on conservation planning and adaptive management. We have submitted this … Continue reading
Posted in CEED, Communication, Ecological models, Probability and Bayesian analysis
Tagged #SCBO2016, adaptive management, Alana Moore, conference, ecology, environmental decisions, Michael McCarthy, mick mccarthy, probability, research, science, Society for Conservation Biology, The University of Melbourne, uncertainty
1 Comment
Election fever hits again
In the 2013 election, I took some interest in the election result in Indi, a seat located in the north-east of Victoria. My interest was spurred by the chance that Sophie Mirabella, who was flagged to be the next Science … Continue reading
CSI: Ecology. Efficiency of eDNA sampling
Detecting a species from the DNA it left behind seems so much like CSI: Ecology. DNA deposited in the environment (eDNA for the cool kids), which can then be collected and identified, is increasingly advocated for ecological studies (Ficetola et … Continue reading
An election looms, and the temperature continues to rise…
In one of my subjects, I used data on the relationship between the global temperature and CO2 concentrations to teach how variability can mask relationships, making inference uncertain. The example was based on an Australian political debate in 2009 about whether … Continue reading
While I was sleeping: optimising ecological surveys over space and time
With the recent online publication of a new paper, here’s a blog post about how the research arose – a fun confluence of mathematical and cognitive collaboration across two sides of the world. And some of it was achieved while … Continue reading
Posted in CEED, Detectability, Ecological models, New research, Probability and Bayesian analysis
Tagged Alana Moore, Cindy Hauser, ecological surveys, ecology, environmental decisions, imperfect detection, Michael McCarthy, mick mccarthy, models, optimization, probability, research, uncertainty
1 Comment
Effects of stand age on fire severity
Our new paper shows that the probability of crown fire in mountain forests under extreme weather conditions is greatest when trees are about 15 years old. This has implications for debates about how timber harvesting influences the risk of fire. … Continue reading
My talk at #ISEC2014
I’m speaking tomorrow on the last afternoon of the International Statistical Ecology Conference in Montpellier. I’ll be arguing that usual metrics (e.g., AIC) to measure the performance of species distribution models (SDMs) might not actually be relevant for selecting models … Continue reading
Joint Species Distribution Models
Update: The paper is now available (free) from Methods in Ecology and Evolution. Update 2: In the tutorial on how to use this method, we refer to the file “fit.JSDM.r”. This is the R script on the journal website named, … Continue reading
Posted in CEED, Ecological models, New research, Probability and Bayesian analysis
Tagged Bayesian, Chib and Greenberg, correlation, ecology, Michael McCarthy, mick mccarthy, multivariate, mutlivariate probit, probability, research, species distribution model, species distribution models, The University of Melbourne
11 Comments
Michael McCarthy's Research 
You must be logged in to post a comment.